11th December 2010

Cancun Marks Small Step Forward, but Trade Issues Prove Too Difficult

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CANCUN, MEXICO - It is 3:30am on Saturday morning. Many negotiators are currently forging through their second night without sleep. The aisles of the plenary hall are swimming with standing delegates as every seat in the house is full.

The applause at the close of the COP is nearly deafening, and the standing ovation leaves little to the imagination. The decisions of the Conference of the Parties and the Meeting of the Parties were just gavelled by the the president of the COP, Patricia Espinosa.

The President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon, enters the room for the closing. The room breaks into applause again and everyone is standing again.

But not the entire room shares the joy. There is at least one country, and a faction of observers - or perhaps “witnesses” - who are not satisfied.

Throughout the final plenaries, which only began at 11pm, Bolivia expressed again and again its disagreement with the content of the decisions on both the Kyoto Protocol and the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action. The reasons were many. They ranged from a lack of inclusiveness in the process, to a lack of ambition in the mitigation measures contained in the documents. They noted inconsistencies such as reference in the Kyoto text to an annexed document that did not exist and that will contain the same emissions reductions from developed countries as those annexed to the Copenhagen Accord. Bolivia underlined that the KP text was a step backwards in that it represented a shift from firm emissions targets to voluntary emissions reductions. They later pointed out that the LCA failed to incorporate many proposals they had made. They repeated that they did not agree with the texts and therefore there was no consensus. “Not even in Copenhagen, with all of the problems that there were, was this rule disrespected,” said Bolivia.

When the agreements were gavelled, taking note of Bolivia’s objections, Bolivia spoke out again to underline the violation of the rules of the international system that govern the UNFCCC. “This will set a dangerous precedent of exclusion. “It may be Bolivia tonight, but it could be any country tomorrow.” The president responded that the consensus rule does not mean unanimity. She further responded that she could not permit one country to exercise an effective veto over 193 other countries.

Who is right… who holds the truth on these issues of legal interpretation? Tonight, it was she who held the gavel. As the president gaveled the final decision and the crowd exploded into applause… one voice was silent – one voice with millions of supporters, because it was impossible to find a middle ground, was silenced.

The content of the documents will be on the UNFCCC website within hours. In a nutshell, the negotiating texts were boiled down to the least common denominators. The agriculture agreement, which was not very controversial, but ended up tied to the difficult bunker fuels text, was axed. Any mention of intellectual property was axed. All references to unilateral trade measures were axed. What is the common element here? It doesn’t take too much imagination or too many issues of BioRes Review to capture that it is the question of trade. One of more difficult questions to untangle and agree upon. One of the most complex issues, requiring more time, consideration, and understanding.

The Kyoto Protocol lives to see another day – although debilitated, it is not dead, as many thought might happen. The LCA now has new life… and if you look at it closely enough, you will clearly see the features of the Copenhagen Accord taking shape. An operationalisation of the elements that most, although not all countries were able to agree to in Denmark last year.

The conclusion: the process moves forward – partially, slowly, and imperfectly but forward nonetheless… on the road to Durban, South Africa in 2011.

Ana Maria Kleymeyer is Advisor of Climate Change Negotiations for ICTSD