Taking Stock of the Doha Round Agricultural Negotiations: Where Are We and What Does it Really Mean for the US?
27th April – 1st May 2008
After many setbacks, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations have resumed, and may indeed be moving towards agreement and therefore possible conclusion. On the other hand, there are ample grounds for concern that WTO members will not be able to strike a deal any time soon, or that an accord will not be ambitious enough in increasing market access or supporting development. In addition to what might be called the “Geneva problem” of getting 151 countries to reach a consensus on technically complex agreements covering a wide range of issues, this year, the ramifications of political dynamics in the US will be felt even more widely than usual. The unusually high political profile of U.S. trade policy is primarily due to at least four factors: (1) this is both a presidential and a congressional election year, one in which voters’ anxieties about economic globalization have featured prominently; (2) the U.S. economy is widely believed to be either in a recession or headed towards one, amplifying voter concerns; (3) the presidential administration’s Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) expired in July 2007, and any trade agreements concluded before a new ‘fast-track’ authority grant is made will be vulnerable to delays and amendments in Congress; and (4) Congress is currently considering several other trade-related initiatives, including the new farm Bill and climate change legislation. Other pending initiatives may indirectly affect the negotiations in Geneva, and more directly affect the specific interests of various countries and regions. Congress may take up Bills to renew several preferential trade programs that are scheduled to expire in the coming months, including the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP); parts of the Caribbean Basin Initiative, and the African Growth and Opportunities Act. Another pending initiative in Congress would extend duty-free, quota free treatment to those least-developed countries that do not presently receive such treatment under existing programs.
The International Centre on Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD) is an independent organization dedicated to sustainable development that brings together knowledge, strategic thinking and stakeholders to shape international trade policies and rules for a future that builds economic opportunity, resilient societies and a health environment for all. Founded in 1996 in Geneva, Switzerland, the Centre works to enable, broker and support interaction among stakeholders and trade policy-makers