Bridges Trade BioRes • Volume 10 • Number 1 • 22nd January 2010
US Climate Plans Less Clear Following Republican Victory
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Following the election of Republican Scott Brown to replace Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy –who passed away this past December – many are asking what the effect will be on President Obama’s top-priority national reforms and international agenda, including climate change. Brown’s victory is a major upset for the Democratic Party who, as a result of the forfeit of this Senate seat, has lost their filibuster-proof 60-40 majority in the Senate.
Yet as the bipartisan country’s two parties have increasingly straddled the traditional line between conservative and liberal positions on issues ranging from education to civil rights and economic reform, speculation runs rampant but no one can guarantee whether the victory will mean an automatic ’no’ on issues critical to the president.
Brown opposed to national cap-and-trade
While Brown has cast himself as a climate critic during his recent campaign, when he was state senator for Massachusetts he voted for a regional cap-and-trade regime, similar to the approach taken in the current climate bill, which eventually was passed in the New England states. Nonetheless, on his campaign website, Brown included a statement that he opposes a national cap-and-trade program “because of the higher costs that families and businesses would incur.”
He instead supports the “development of alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, and improved hydroelectric facilities… in order to reduce [US] dependence on foreign oil.” This position reflects a common Republican approaches to the climate bill and indicates a potential area of tradeoffs likely to result in order to successfully pass the bill through the Congress.
Health care debate may water down climate legislation
The doubt over the viability of the climate bill is not exclusive to climate-sceptics and Republicans. Although Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has clearly stated that the Senate would take up a climate change bill this spring, since Brown’s election there is increased doubt about the possibility of passing the climate change legislation this year.
Democratic senator Byron Dorgan said in a recent interview that the Senate is unlikely to pass climate change legislation this year after going through the contentious health care debate, and will focus on a separate energy bill that has more bipartisan support. “My own sense is that in the aftermath of a very, very heavy lift on health care, I think it is unlikely that the Senate will turn next to the very complicated and very controversial subject of cap-and-trade, climate change kind of legislation,” Dorgan said.
That legislation would require more US electricity supplies to be generated from renewable sources like wind and solar, and expand offshore drilling into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which holds almost 4 billion barrels of oil.
Business, NGOs push for unity of climate change
On the flipside, the same week of the election, a diverse group of nearly 90 leading businesses, environmental organisations, national security experts, veterans’ organisations, labour unions and faith-based groups ranging from General Motors and GE to the World Resources Institute and Pepsico posted an advertisement in the Wall Street Journal calling for “Democrats and Republicans to unite behind bi-partisan, national energy and climate legislation that increases our security and limits emissions, as it preserves and creates jobs.” The gesture indicates an optimism and dedication among leading private and non-governmental groups in the United States who are forging ahead with their support for the climate legislation.
Speculation of the impact that the passage of the US healthcare reform bill might have on the outcome of the climate legislation is uncertain. While some consider that a victory with the healthcare bill will boost spirits and confidence in the presidentially-led legislation, others say a defeat of the healthcare reform might actually be more beneficial to the climate legislation as it will push Democrats and other supports to put more energy and dedication to getting the bill passed, particularly in light of the 2010 mid-term elections. So, it is heads or tails whether the precarious legislation makes it onto the congressional decision-making docket for this year.
ICTSD Reporting; “Reflections on a hugely changed climate,” BBC NEWS, 22 January 2010; “Senate not seen passing climate bill in 2010,” REUTERS, 19 January 2010; “A Question of American Leadership,” PEW CENTER, 21 January 2010.
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