Bridges Trade BioRes • Volume 7 • Number 9 • 11th May 2007

CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENTISTS SAY CARBON EMISSIONS CAN BE REDUCED AT REASONABLE COST

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CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENTISTS SAY CARBON EMISSIONS CAN BE REDUCED AT REASONABLE COST

According to a new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the scientific body examining global climate research — measures to mitigate global warming can be undertaken at reasonable cost. The report was released on 4 May in Bangkok following international consultations. Addressing the short, medium (until 2030) and long term (after 2030), the report states that growth in greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed through a series of measures ranging from boosting renewable energy use and increasing energy efficiency to curbing deforestation.

Stressing the urgency of taking action, the report lists mitigation practices and technologies by sector, examining both those commercially available at present and those projected to be commercialised by 2030. While "no one sector or technology can address the entire mitigation challenge," the technologies with the greatest potential include energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste. The report stresses that energy efficiency "plays a key role across many scenarios for most regions and timescales."

Entitled "Mitigation of Climate Change," the report is the third in a series of four comprehensive assessment reports that examine the effects of global climate change, to be completed by the end of 2007. The first report — an overview of the science of global warming — was issued in February and concluded that it is "very likely," or at least 90 percent certain, that mankind is to blame for most of the warming in the last half century (see Bridges Trade BioRes, 2 February 2007, http://www.ictsd.org/biores/07-02-02/story2.htm). A second report, released a month ago, highlighted the global impacts of climate change, noting that the most vulnerable populations will be hardest hit (see Bridges Trade BioRes, 13 April 2007, http://www.ictsd.org/biores/07-04-13/story1.htm).

Greenhouse gas emissions to grow… urgent measures needed

At its outset, the IPCC report notes that greenhouse gases have grown substantially since pre-industrial times, and are set to grow by between 25 and 90 percent between 2000 and 2030. While developed countries account for most historic and current emissions, up to about 75 percent of the projected growth in emissions will come from developing nations.

The new report underlines the urgency of implementing mitigation measures. At the launch of the report, IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri stressed that "we don’t have the luxury of time." Many researchers believe that keeping concentrations below 450 parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric carbon dioxide is necessary to keep the average global temperature increase below two degrees centigrade, avoiding major climate change disruption. However, the lower the stabilisation level aimed for, the sooner greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak and then start to decline. Efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on what can be achieved in the longer term.

Key sectors for action

The IPCC singles out the building sector as a major potential contributor to climate change mitigation. Measures to be taken include installing efficient lighting, heating, cooling, and insulation systems. Potential barriers in the sector include limited availability of technology and financing, limitations inherent in building design, and the lack of appropriate portfolios of policies and programmes. Such barriers are higher in developing than developed countries.

Energy production and consumption are key contributors to climate change, and mitigation measures in the sector include improving efficiency and fuel-switching to alternate energy sources such as nuclear, hydro, solar, and bio-energy. The IPCC also highlights the potential for developing combined heat and power generation and carbon dioxide capture and storage.

According to the IPCC, multiple mitigation options exist in the transportation sector. However, their effect could be outbalanced by overall growth, and hampered by barriers such as consumer preferences and a lack of adequate policy frameworks.

Mitigation efforts within the industrial sector should focus on energy-intensive industries, where efficient electrical equipment, heat, and power-recover techniques, along with material recycling processes, could be installed. According to the IPCC, neither industrialised nor developing countries are making full use of existing options in their industrial sectors. Upgrading older, inefficient facilities could deliver significant emissions reductions. Key barriers in the sector include the slow rate of capital stock turnover, a lack of financial and technical resources, and the limited ability of firms — particularly small and medium enterprises — to access and absorb new technological information.

In terms of the agriculture sector, the IPCC highlights the large mitigation potential of soils through carbon sequestration. However, stored soil carbon might be vulnerable to loss through both weak land management practices and climate change itself. Considerable mitigation potential further exists for methane and nitrous oxide emissions from some agricultural systems. The report also highlights the importance of biomass from agriculture and dedicated energy crops as bioenergy feedstock, but cautions that widespread use of agricultural land for biomass production for energy may compete with other land uses and could have either positive or negative impacts on environment, and implications for food security.

The IPCC further stressed that forest-related mitigation activities could have a considerable impact. Sixty-five percent of total mitigation potential is located in the tropics and about 50 percent of the total could be achieved by reducing emissions from deforestation. The report also notes that sustainable development benefits, such as employment, biodiversity conservation, and poverty alleviation, can be derived from mitigation projects.

Policy framework and costs

The IPCC report lists a number of policies and instruments targeting producers and consumers that countries could choose from based on the criteria of environmental effectiveness, cost effectiveness, distributional effects (including equity), and institutional feasibility. These policy instruments include, among other things, regulations and standards, taxes and charges, tradable permits, financial incentives, and voluntary agreements. The report notes that climate change policies should be integrated into broader development policies.

In terms of mitigation costs, the IPCC report assesses the likely impacts on global GDP by 2030 if countries adopt cost-effective mitigation. Stabilisation of atmospheric carbon at between 445ppm and 535ppm would cost less than three percent of global GDP, stabilisation between 535ppm and 590ppm would cost 0.2-2.5 percent of GDP, while stabilisation at levels between 590ppm and 710ppm would bring anything between a net benefit of 0.6 percent and a net cost of 1.2 percent.

The Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC report on "Mitigation of Climate Change" is available at http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM040507.pdf.

ICTSD reporting; "UN Findings on Costs of Fighting Global Warming," REUTERS, 7 May 2007; "Climate Change ‘Can be Tackled’," BBCNEWS, 4 May 2007; "Climate Change: Options to Tackle It Are Affordable, Agree Governments," FRIENDS OF THE EARTH, 4 May 2007; IPCC Press Conference Webcast, available at http://www.ipcc.ch.