Bridges Trade BioRes • Volume 7 • Number 22 • 18th December 2007

ALL ONBOARD: BALI MEETING STAKES OUT PATH TO GLOBAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT

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ALL ONBOARD: BALI MEETING STAKES OUT PATH TO GLOBAL CLIMATE AGREEMENT

A global meeting has agreed a roadmap for negotiations on a new agreement to tackle climate change, bringing all countries onboard.

Close to 11,000 people convened in Bali, Indonesia, from 3-15 December, at the largest climate meeting to date. In addition to the official negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), numerous side events showcased innovative approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation and presented a multitude of perspectives and experiences with climate change. Global media kept close watch over the meeting, and expectations for a substantial outcome were high.

On 15 December, after UN Secretary-General and the President of Indonesia joined in a last-minute effort to strike a deal, representatives of 187 countries adopted the "Bali Action Plan" after drawn-out and often tense negotiations, setting the stage for a two-year negotiating process leading to a new legally-binding instrument to replace the Kyoto Protocol after 2012. They also agreed to step up technology transfer, funding for climate adaptation in developing countries, and to compensate developing countries for protecting their forests.

Hard targets, hot topics

While countries previously were fragmented in their approach to climate change - with the US in a league of its own after pulling out of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 - all now signed onto a common approach to climate mitigation. At the close of the meeting, Indonesian foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda stressed that "Here in Bali we reached a consensus, global consensus for all countries. No single country was excluded, in a very inclusive process…we hope it will provide not only a good basis but also the momentum in the coming years."

However, the negotiators removed specific targets from the text during the course of the negotiations, and watering down the outcome document. Previous negotiating drafts had specified that developed countries should cut emissions between 25-40 percent by 2020 from their 1990 levels. The target was linked to the goal of curbing greenhouse gas emissions enough to allow global average temperatures to stabilise at no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which many scientists and policy-makers say is necessary to avoid irreversible climate change. Supported by the EU but opposed by the US, the target was eventually dropped from the final document. However, the Bali Action Plan commits all developed country parties to "Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives."

Negotiators also disagreed on the actions that developing countries, and especially large emerging economies such as China and India, should take on. The Group of 77 developing countries plus China rejected an earlier draft calling for measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions by developing countries. In the end, the Bali Action Plan was amended by the developing-country grouping to say that emerging economies should make "nationally appropriate mitigation actions… in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner." This language, which developing countries claimed was necessary to ensure that they would be able to maintain space for development policy and obtain the technological and financial backing they need, took the conference into a dramatic process. The US preferred the earlier formulation. Many developing country delegations made strong statements calling upon the US to accept the text after the EU had agreed. Several representatives of African and small-island Pacific countries, already affected by the impact of climate change, spoke out in favour of global consensus. In an unusual intervention, a delegate from Papua New Guinea challenged the US to "either lead, follow or get out of the way." In the end, the US did join in the consensus, meaning the overall deal could be struck.From euphoria to scepticism

Following the extremely tense and high-profile negotiations, most negotiators were pleased and relieved to have delivered on the mandate of the negotiations. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told Reuters after the meeting that "All the 188 countries have recognised that this is the defining agenda for all humanity, for all planet Earth."

The US called many parts of the deal "quite positive." However, White House spokesperson Dana Perino said she "does have serious concerns about other aspects of the decision as we begin the negotiations," referring specifically to the US stance that emerging developing countries should take on strong commitments.

Many commentators from civil society were cautiously welcoming. Elliot Diringer, Director of International Strategies Pew Center on Global Climate Change in the US said the deal "It puts no one on the hook right now for emission reductions. What’s important, though, is that it lets no one off the hook either. It challenges all governments to confront the tough issues ahead and opens the way for the first time to a comprehensive negotiation of post-2012 commitments."

Sunita Narain, who heads the Centre for Science and Trade Environment in New Delhi, India, was more pessimistic. She said "As an environmentalist, I am not satisfied. I think what we have seen at Bali is what we saw at (previous meetings in) Rio and Berlin. I see this as a replay… I don’t see the world growing up. It’s obvious the US is not learning to be alive to world opinion."

Looking to the future

2007 was an exceptional year, placing climate change squarely in the public eye. Over the next two years, climate bureaucrats have a heavy agenda with a number of meetings set for hammering out compromises and agreeing on an effective, fair and strong agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. Four meetings have already been set for 2008, and negotiations are scheduled to be completed in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Failing to deliver on climate change was not an option at Bali. On the road to Copehagen, countries can either strengthen or water down the promise they made in the Bali Action Plan. Many are banking on the change in US leadership following presidential elections in November 2008 to improve the prospects for a strong next step in the climate regime.

Additional resources

To access the Bali Action Plan, visit http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_13/application/pdf/cp_bali_action.pdf

For daily updates and a summary of the meeting, see IISD’s Earth Negotiations Bulletin at http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop13/

ICTSD reporting; "UN Breakthrough on climate change reached in Bali," UNFCCC RELEASE, 15 December 2007; "Climate Plan Looks Beyond Bush’s Tenure," NYT, 16 December 2007; "Bali climate talks a huge step forward: R K Pachauri," TIMES OF INDIA, 16 December 2007.