Bridges Weekly Trade News Digest • Volume 7 • Number 22 • 18th June 2003

Climate Change Negotiations Address Future Of Kyoto Protocol

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Climate change negotiators met in Bonn, Germany, in early June for their biannual meetings on scientific, technological and implementation issues under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 18th sessions of the UNFCCC subsidiary bodies on scientific and technological advice (SBSTA) and on implementation (SBI) were held from 4-13 June. Their meetings focused heavily on preparations for the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC, including discussions on the role of forestry activities under the Clean Development Mechanism. Other issues addressed were, inter alia, a Special Climate Change Fund and capacity building for developing countries, policies and measures to address climate change, and the next global assessment of climate change.

The question of Russia’s ratification

A key question on delegates’ minds relating to the future of the Kyoto process was whether, and when, Russia would ratify the Protocol. In order for the Protocol to enter into force, 55 Parties — including industrialised Parties accounting for 55 percent of that group’s carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 — have to ratify. The Protocol has been ratified by 111 countries to date, including 32 industrialised countries representing 44% of 1990 emissions. Russia’s, and only Russia’s, ratification would trigger entry into force, since the US, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, choosing instead to implement its own domestic measures (see BRIDGES Weekly, 19 February 2003).

The EU and other developed countries that have ratified the Protocol have been putting pressure on Russia to ratify. Russia made statements at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in September 2002 confirming that the country would ratify. More recently, at the G-8 Summit in Evian in early June, Russian delegates noted that the country does not foresee ratification to be a problem. At the meeting in Bonn, Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, said she believed that Russia would possibly submit its instrument of ratification in conjunction with the Third World Conference on Climate Change in Moscow in September. She noted that if the ratification came by 13 September, the Protocol would enter into force in time for the next meeting of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties to be held in Italy in December. Russia could potentially stand to gain significant economic benefits through emissions trading under the Protocol.

Future work under the Protocol

During the meeting, the US, as a Party to the UNFCCC but not the Protocol, sought to make a distinction between issues handled under the two bodies, sending signals some observers found worrisome. The US wanted a separate budget for Secretariat activities under the Convention and the Protocol, and pushed for separate meetings of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties and the Protocol Meeting of the Parties — arrangements that may set a precedent for work under other multilateral environmental treaties. Opponents to this approach argued that it might "create a distinct separation between two complimentary legal instruments," and have a negative impact on the Secretariat’s work.

Regarding the future of the Protocol and the climate regime, developed and developing countries remained divided on the necessity for developing countries to begin constraining emissions in the future. The oil producing countries in particular took strong positions and worked against any decisions referring to future actions by developing countries.

Emissions projected to rise in developed countries

In conjunction with the meetings in Bonn, the UNFCCC secretariat released information on emissions projections for developed countries until 2010. While greenhouse emissions from developed countries stabilised during the 1990s, emissions from highly industrialised countries are expected to rise by 17 percent between 2000 and 2010, and the emissions of the economies in transition, which decreased significantly during the 1990s, are also expected to take off. Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC noted that "these findings clearly demonstrate that stronger and more creative policies will be needed for accelerating the spread of climate-friendly technologies and persuading businesses, local governments and citizens to cut their greenhouse gas emissions". The information stems from the UNFCCC Compilation and Synthesis of Third National Communications from Parties, which also outlines the widening range of measures undertaken by countries to address climate change.

The ninth UNFCCC Conference of the Parties and the 19th sessions of the subsidiary bodies will take place in Milan, Italy, in December 2003.

For daily briefings and a detailed summary of the meeting, see IISD’S Earth Negotiations Bulletin at http://www.iisd.ca/linkages/climate/sb18/.

"Russia must end uncertainty over Kyoto, says U.N.," REUTERS, 11 June 2003; "Rich countries see higher greenhouse gas emissions," UNFCCC PRESS RELASE, 3 June 2003; "Bonn Climate Conference Ends on Upbeat Note," DEUTSCHE WELLE, 14 June 2003; "Summary of the Eighteenth Sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies of the Un Framework Convention on Climate Change," IISD’S EARTH NEGOTIATIONS BULLETIN, 16 June 2003.