WTO Ministerial Section • Volume 9 • Number 40 • 23rd November 2005

Five Ministers Aiming For Doha Round Road Map In Hong Kong

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Ministers from five influential trading nations came away from a 22 November meeting in Geneva with the impression that a high-level summit in the first months of 2006 would be necessary in order for WTO Members to strike a far-reaching, detailed framework agreement for the Doha Round trade talks in time to conclude the negotiations by the end of next year. Representatives from the EU, the US, Brazil, India, and Japan agreed that December’s Hong Kong Ministerial Conference should establish a "road map" for the completion of the negotiations, though they remain divided on the issue of farm trade liberalisation.

WTO Members have conceded that their negotiating positions remain too far apart for them to agree on ‘full modalities’ — including specific numerical values and formulae for reducing tariffs on farm products and industrial goods — in Hong Kong (see BRIDGES Weekly, 16 November 2005). They now admit that full modalities will only be possible in 2006.

The reports on the state of the talks released this week by the chairs of the agriculture and industrial goods negotiations point to the wide differences that persist. While the reports had originally been expected to contain draft modalities based on Members’ converging viewpoints, the chairs were able to do little more than summarise and consolidate the various positions that Members had expressed during discussions.

Lamy draft text expected to provide direction for Hong Kong

Nevertheless, US Trade Representative Rob Portman stressed that the Ministerial Conference should be "more than just a simple stock-taking exercise," suggesting that Members could, for example try to agree to the contours of a formula for reducing tariffs on industrial goods. Saying that the summit should create "the road map for negotiations in 2006," he called for any interim decision there to be "as specific as possible."

"We have agreed to try and bridge our differences in the course of the next weeks to Hong Kong and thereafter," said Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath. He told the press that the ministers had agreed to try to ensure that the December meeting establishes timelines for work in 2006. His EU counterpart, Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, expressed hope that governments would use the Hong Kong gathering to "lock in the progress made" in the negotiations thus far, and establish a "springboard for advance" next year.

In order to conclude the Doha Round by the end of 2006, Members would need to agree on full modalities quite early in the year in order to leave sufficient time for the significant amounts of technical work that would still be necessary thereafter.

Clues about precisely how much more than simple stock-taking Members might try to achieve at the December summit are expected to emerge from the first comprehensive draft version of a Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration that WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy is currently putting together on the basis of input from the different negotiating groups. He is aiming to circulate the text to Members on 25 November.

New ministerial meeting in early 2006?

The ministers were emphatic about the need to maintain the current level of momentum in the talks through December and into 2006. "We’ve got to make sure that coming out of Hong Kong we don’t simply all breathe a sigh of relief and go back home… and leave Doha behind," Portman said. "We need to keep the pressure on." For the first time, he openly suggested that a high-level meeting after Hong Kong would be necessary in order to nudge Members towards full modalities. "Without a meeting, without setting up sort of a backstop, it’s tough to make progress."

Earlier this month, Kamal Nath and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim had talked about the possible need for a "Hong Kong Two" gathering. At the time, sources had mentioned March as a potential target date for full modalities. On 22 November, however, Portman said that no timeframe for such a meeting had been established.

Governments are continuing to push for finishing the round by the end of 2006 because US President George W. Bush’s "fast track" ability to put a trade agreement to Congress for a simple yes-or-no vote without the risk of major amendment is set to expire in mid-2007.

Senior trade officials from several countries are set to meet over the next two weeks to discuss what they might successfully agree on in Hong Kong. The five ministers who met on 22 November are planning to get together again next week, possibly in Brussels or Geneva. A summit of G-90 ministers (encompassing African, Caribbean, Pacific, and least-developed country Members) is planned for the same time. African trade ministers kicked off a meeting in Arusha, Tanzania on 23 November, where they will try to articulate a common position on commodities.

Geneva delegations will examine Lamy’s comprehensive draft text first at a 30 November meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee and then at a 1-2 December session of the General Council. The Ministerial Conference gets underway on 13 December.

ICTSD reporting; "WTO ‘won’t agree deal in China,’" BBC NEWS, 22 November 2005; "WTO heavyweights set to review Hong Kong prospects," AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, 23 November 2005; "New date for interim trade deal agreed," FT.com (FINANCIAL TIMES), 22 November 2005; "African trade ministers meet on position," ASSOCIATED PRESS, 23 November 2005; "Key WTO ‘meeting next week’," GULF TIMES, 23 November 2005; "Another Day of Trade Talks, but the Same Old Impasse," NEW YORK TIMES, 23 November 2005.