Bridges Weekly Trade News Digest • Volume 10 • Number 28 • 2nd August 2006
Governments Exploring How To Restart Doha Round Talks
A week after the Doha Round trade negotiations were suspended indefinitely due to persistent differences among key trading nations on how to cut farm subsidies and tariffs, senior officials from several countries have started to explore whether and how the talks might be restarted.
The WTO negotiations have been frozen since 24 July, after ministers from the EU, the US, Australia, Brazil, India and Japan (the so-called G-6) failed once again to reach a deal on cutting farm subsidies and tariffs (see BRIDGES Weekly, 26 July 2006). There is no timetable for resuming the negotiations. Some trade analysts believe that it may be possible within months, especially after the US Congressional elections in November. Others believe that progress is unlikely before 2009 or 2010, due to looming presidential elections in Brazil, France, and the US.
Nevertheless, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair said on 30 July that he had "not at all given up" on the round, and that he and US President George W. Bush were both eager to try to revive the talks. Earlier, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab went to Brazil to discuss the Doha Round with her counterparts there. South African President Thabo Mbeki, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson have also called for the negotiations to be resuscitated.
Meanwhile, WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy promised Geneva-based negotiators on 27 July that he would do everything in his power to "keep up the pressure for the political movement which would permit a resumption of the negotiations." He emphasised that such movement would require them to make "changes in entrenched positions" (see related article, this issue). The US has faced the brunt of the blame for the recent collapse, for being unwilling to offer deeper cuts to agricultural subsidies.
Following talks in Rio de Janeiro from 27-29 July, Schwab and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said that they were both committed to arriving at a far-reaching Doha Round agreement.
The US trade envoy, who will meet counterparts from around the world over the next few months, suggested that striking a deal in the next five to eight months remained possible. She said that she hoped to have a framework agreement ready by early 2007, which she could use to try to persuade Congress to extend the Bush administration’s trade promotion authority. Due to expire at the end of June 2007, this mandate allows the administration to negotiate trade agreements and submit them to Congress for a take-it-or-leave-it vote. A short-term extension is thought to be more achievable than a wholescale renewal, particularly if an accord looks likely.
Schwab repeated Washington’s position that additional concessions on farm subsidies were possible in return for the "right degree of market access." Writing in the Financial Times on 30 July, Mandelson said that Brussels’ existing offer already marked a dramatic retreat for EU producers from global export markets, but said that it could "reduce the number of sensitive products and offer improved market access even in this category." The US has been highly critical of requests for flexibilities to shield products from tariff cuts.
In a 30 July speech near San Francisco, Blair said that he and Bush "agreed we needed to make one final effort to re-energise the negotiation." He told News Corporation’s invited guests that they hoped to be able to do so "within the next few weeks." In Miami the following day, Bush promised to do everything he could to "get Doha back on track."
Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile has said that the Cairns Group summit his government is hosting in September will provide a chance — albeit a slim one — to get the negotiations going again. Speaking on Australian radio, he said that breaking the deadlock depended most on the EU and the US, and that Mandelson and Schwab had been invited to join their counterparts from the group of farm exporting nations at the meeting.
Several business groups from around the world have called for the resumption of trade talks. The International Chamber of Commerce on 25 July urged "WTO members to reaffirm in a concrete way their own commitment to the WTO system by avoiding new protectionist measures, and by seeking fresh approaches to resume the Doha Round negotiations as soon as possible and on the basis of the progress already achieved."
ICTSD reporting; "Blair Says He, Bush Hope for New WTO Talks," ASSOCIATED PRESS, 31 July 2006; "Bush pledges to try to revive Doha trade talks," REUTERS, 1 August 2006; "US and Brazil revive hope for Doha deal," FINANCIAL TIMES, 31 July 2006; "What now, trade ministers?", INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, 27 July 2006; "A deal can still be salvaged from the ashes of Doha," FINANCIAL TIMES, 31 July 2006; "Schwab, Amorim Say Saving Doha Trade Talks Possible," BLOOMBERG, 29 July 2006; "It will take years to revive trade talks," GUARDIAN, 31 July 2006; "Lamy wants India to return to negotiation," NDTV.com, 28 July 2006; "ICC calls for Doha Round to be resumed as quickly as possible," INTERNATIONAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, 25 July 2006; "Summit last chance for WTO talks: Vaile," THE AGE, 2 August 2006.