Agriculture Programme

Implications for Japan of the July 2008 Draft Agricultural Modalities

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Implications for Japan of the July 2008 Draft Agricultural Modalities PDF • 2.47 MB

This paper examines how the draft agriculture agreement currently under negotiation at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would affect Japan. It analyses how provisions on market access, domestic support and export competition would affect Japan, looking at the implications of the proposed disciplines for current policy. The paper is part of a series that includes the EU, US, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mauritius and Burkina Faso (in English, in French).

In contrast to the EU, which took a defensive position in the Uruguay Round but has been playing a more active role in the current Doha Round, Japan has maintained the defensive position it has taken in previous Rounds.

In 1992, at the end of the Uruguay Round negotiations, the EU instituted reforms, significantly lowering support prices for grain and beef and compensating farmers by paying them directly. Lowering prices enabled the EU to allow the volume of subsidized exports to be reduced through reductions in surpluses.

The EU has subsequently continued its reform process. In the 2000 reform, it reduced the support price of cereals by 15 percent, and in the 2003 reform reduced the support prices on dairy products, with the price of skimmed milk powder being lowered by 15 percent and that for butter by 25 percent.

In the 2005 reform, the EU finally reduced the support price for sugar (previously unchanged for 40 years) by 36 percent, and switched to direct payments corresponding to 64 percent of the price reduction. For these reasons, the EU could make a commitment to eliminate export subsidies for sugar, dairy products, cereals and beef, and could tolerate 100 percent tariff caps in the current Doha Round of negotiations.

Since the 1960s, price support has dominated Japan’s agricultural policy, supporting farmers’ incomes but placing a huge burden on consumers. In order to maintain high prices, Japan has had to rely on tariffs and non-tariff measures so as to isolate its domestic market from the international market.

In the Uruguay Round, the country resisted tariffication and resorted to special treatment stipulated in Annex 5 of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA), compensating for not tariffying rice by providing more minimum access than would have otherwise been required. Japan, however, finally recognized that it could no longer bear the excessive minimum access burden and applied tariffication in 1999.

The Japanese position in this Round has not changed much from the Uruguay Round, since the country has not changed many of its domestic policies. In 2000, Japan introduced direct payments for farmers in disadvantaged regions. In 2007, it changed the 70 percent of deficiency payments for wheat, barley, sugar and some other dry farming products into green box payments. These policy reforms, however, did not change the domestic prices of agricultural products. Japan therefore has to continue to rely on high tariffs in order to maintain those prices and protect its agricultural sector.

To what extent would a successful conclusion of this Round along the lines of the Revised Draft Modalities paper issued by the chair of the agriculture negotiations, Ambassador Falconer, require changes in Japanese agricultural policies?

How much increased market access is likely to be generated as a result of tariff cuts and tariff rate quota expansion? Could Japan play a more aggressive role in the world market, taking advantage of the expansion of market access generated in other countries?

This paper makes attempts to address these issues by exploring the implications of the Revised Draft Modalities paper.

In addition to quantitative analysis of the extent to which tariffs would be reduced, this paper attempts to analyze the probable and possible effects of the paper on Japanese agriculture and agricultural policies, taking into accounts recent developments in the world market.

The first section of the paper gives an overview of the current state of Japanese agriculture and agricultural policies, insofar as these relate to the disciplines introduced in the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA). The second section reviews briefly the Japanese positions in this Round. The next three sections discuss in more detail the implications of the domestic support, market access and export competition modalities.

The following section tries to point out several legal drawbacks to the proposed commitments on subsidies, the lack of disciplines on export tax, and the overly lenient disciplines on export quantity restrictions. It also refers to some environmental concerns which are just as important as trade concerns. The final section makes an overall assessment of the impacts of the suggested modalities on Japan.