PUSH FOR PROGRESS IN DOHA TALKS PROCEEDING SLUGGISHLY

Do More

See also

Informal talks among key players in the Doha Round trade negotiations appear to be progressing at a glacial pace, calling into question whether WTO Members will be able to reach a deadlock-breaking compromise in the first half of this year.

A series of bilateral meetings in London last week among top officials from the EU, US, India and Brazil produced little more than assurances that they now better understood each others’ positions (see related story, this issue). Despite the full resumption of negotiations in Geneva, representatives from other countries have been looking to these quiet discussions for the building blocks of a potential agreement among the broader WTO Membership. This has thus far been to no avail, to the frustration of some negotiators.

WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy also seems anxious for the talks to pick up speed. Speaking to reporters in Manila on 23 February, he said that "things are progressing with the major actors," but are "too slow" for him to be able to foresee when to convene a meeting of ministers to finalise an agreement that would make it possible to conclude the Doha Round.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal earlier in the week, Lamy said that he is reluctant to call a ministerial gathering unless he’s sure that it would not risk a repeat of July 2006, when high-pressure talks in Geneva collapsed in acrimony over farm trade (see BRIDGES Weekly, 26 July 2006).

Looming over governments is the impending end-June expiry of the US presidential administration’s ‘trade promotion authority’ (TPA). Without this mandate, President George W. Bush will lose his ability to submit trade agreements to Congress for a yes-or-no vote without amendments. Lamy believes that without TPA renewal, the Doha Round may fail. He also said that "some breakthrough package" would need to be on the table in the negotiations before the end of June for the administration to have any chance of convincing Congress to exttend TPA (see BRIDGES Weekly, 14 February 2007).

While it is not clear precisely what a ‘breakthrough’ would entail, negotiators seem to think that it would be similar to ‘modalities’ and at least provide guidance about the depth of eventual subsidy and tariff cuts, as well as the scope of exceptions.

Lamy told the Wall Street Journal that though the US, the EU, and India had not yet reached an accord on the "right numbers," they were "not that far" from a compromise. He added that a breakthrough was "more a question of months than quarters."

US pressuring India

US officials have been calling on India in particular to offer deeper cuts to its industrial and farm subsidies. Following the meetings in London, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab said in a television interview aired 25 February on C-SPAN’s Newsmakers programme that while Washington had been making "slow" progress with the EU and Brazil, India was "less inclined to be a proactive contributor." "India has a very, very important role to play" in the negotiations, she continued. "We hope that India will be part of the solution rather than hold back the talks."

India has held firm to its position that developing countries should have the right to shield up to 20 percent of agricultural tariff lines from the full force of tariff cuts under the Doha Round by designating them as ’special’. It also wants them to have a ’special safeguard mechanism’ to protect farmers from import surges. The US and some other farm exporters argue that these would deny them virtually any new market access opportunities.

Indian officials called Schwab’s comments "inaccurate and unfortunate." Zee News reported that senior commerce ministry officials said that the US had been unwilling to state its position in London. "They want all other countries to show their cards before they decide whether they want to play. How is it possible?" one of them asked.

The Financial Express newspaper reported that New Delhi was surprised by the US trade chief’s statement that Washington had been making progress with Brazil, a fellow member of the G-20 bloc of developing countries. Kamal Nath, India’s commerce and industry minister, appears set to travel to Geneva next week to meet Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim for bilateral talks, as well as to "reaffirm the unity of the G-20."

Meanwhile, the Indian government unveiled its budget on 28 February, in which it announced that the maximum applied tariff on most industrial products would fall to 10 percent from 12.5 percent. It also lowered duties on some food imports such as edible oils in an attempt to curb inflation.

ICTSD reporting; "WTO Chief Lamy Says Ministerial Trade Talks Possible ‘Soon,’" BLOOMBERG, 21 February 2007; "Doha talks bring engagement but no broad accord," FINANCIAL TIMES, 27 February 2007; "WTO Chief Lamy Sees Doha Breakthrough," WALL STREET JOURNAL, 21 February 2007; "Nath rushing to Geneva to Brazil Trade Minister," ZEE NEWS, 27 February 2007; "Kamal Nath to reaffirm Brazil’s support for WTO talks," FINANCIAL EXPRESS, 27 February 2007; "WTO chief: Talks too slow," REUTERS, 23 February 2007.