The Role of International Trade in Climate Change Adaptation

by Gerald Nelson, Amanda Palazzo, Claudia Ringler, Timothy Sulser and Miroslav Batka

ICTSD-IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade Series • Issue Brief 4

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Early studies on the potential impacts of climate change indicated that agriculture was not likely to be severely affected, as carbon fertilization and trade flows were thought to be able to compensate for any productivity declines related to climate change. Recent work, however, has raised doubts about whether carbon fertilization laboratory test results can be replicated in the field. With the effects of carbon fertilization in question, the role of trade in the context of climate change becomes even more important. Climate change is anticipated to increase the incidence of food insecurity around the world, but trade has the potential to help counteract this effect by delivering agricultural goods to areas experiencing productivity declines. This ICTSD-IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade paper by Gerald Nelson and his colleagues at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) builds on IFPRI’s important work on estimating the costs of adaptation, and projects a significant increase in agricultural trade flows, in particular from developed to developing countries.

In its recommendations to policymakers released in October, the ICTSD-IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade emphasized that an open and equitable agricultural trade system is necessary to address both climate change and food security concerns. Yet, as this paper also argues, it would be unwise to rely solely on trade to help us adjust to climate change. Alongside ongoing efforts to maintain an open and equitable global food system, the international community must also importantly commit to sustained investment in agricultural productivity. We are pleased to release this paper, trusting that it will enhance the Platform’s efforts to increase understanding of the linkages between climate change, agricultural production, trade and food security, which in turn will yield greater policy coherence among these issues.

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